CriticalFumble.net Forums  

Go Back   CriticalFumble.net Forums > CriticalFumble.net Community Forums > Thunderdome: The Sports Haven

Thunderdome: The Sports Haven Discuss any and all sports -- professional, collegiate, amateur, or fantasy.

View Poll Results: so who wins?
ATL: falcons win their first in franchise history 0 0%
NE: patriots win their xth 3 75.00%
advertisers! 1 25.00%
i don't give a damn! 0 0%
Voters: 4. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 02-02-2017, 04:44 PM
silverwhisper silverwhisper is offline
just this guy, you know?
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: currently, elsewhere
Posts: 23,766
silverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond repute
Default super bowl 51: predictions

so who's taking it?

feel free to add analysis, score predictions, etc.
__________________
"i think this line's mostly filler"--willow rosenberg, once more with feeling, season 6, buffy the vampire slayer
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 02-03-2017, 08:21 AM
Paulypalooza's Avatar
Paulypalooza Paulypalooza is offline
Worst. Post. Ever.
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: sector ZZ9 plural Z alpha
Posts: 5,311
Paulypalooza has a brilliant futurePaulypalooza has a brilliant futurePaulypalooza has a brilliant futurePaulypalooza has a brilliant futurePaulypalooza has a brilliant futurePaulypalooza has a brilliant futurePaulypalooza has a brilliant futurePaulypalooza has a brilliant futurePaulypalooza has a brilliant futurePaulypalooza has a brilliant futurePaulypalooza has a brilliant future
Default

Don't want to see the evil empire win again but hard to pick against them.
__________________
Life is a war. Every man needs a sword - Origen

Why garlic you ask? Garlic don't need no stinkin' reason. - Alton Brown

Nobody dies a virgin. Life fucks us all in the end.-
Kurt Kobain.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 02-03-2017, 12:42 PM
Brother Brian's Avatar
Brother Brian Brother Brian is offline
Ivory Tower dwelling Cultural Elitist
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: I got nowhere else to go.
Posts: 16,523
Brother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond repute
Default

So to amuse myself while traveling for work this week, I did some analysis.

The patriots D benefited from not playing many high power offenses, while ATL's may have been hurt by having to play a couple. So I compared their points allowed in each game, to the average that team scored per game over the course of the season.

Atlanta allowed teams to score 104% of their average over the course of the season/playoffs. The Patriots held opponents to 66%.

Using those percentages tied to each teams average scoring and the Patriots win 28.6-25.3. If however you back out the non-Brady games from the Patriots average, it goes to 31.9-25.3.

It won't be a cakewalk, but the Pats offense is almost as prolific as Atlanta's, and their D is much better. Brady gets his 5th ring and cements himself as greatest of all time.
__________________
Brother Brian

Quote:
Originally Posted by Origen View Post
Sometimes, you outgrow promises you make to yourself. That doesn't mean you just couldn't hack it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Origen
Welcome the Forge of Reality (tm), motherfucker.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Archaelos
I'm constantly surprised by the number of people who's memories of political events stretch back exactly to the day after the last time their side did something they don't like.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 02-03-2017, 01:52 PM
silverwhisper silverwhisper is offline
just this guy, you know?
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: currently, elsewhere
Posts: 23,766
silverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond repute
Default

BB, did your analysis similarly pro-rate for the opposing defenses played by the offenses?
__________________
"i think this line's mostly filler"--willow rosenberg, once more with feeling, season 6, buffy the vampire slayer
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 02-03-2017, 02:33 PM
Brother Brian's Avatar
Brother Brian Brother Brian is offline
Ivory Tower dwelling Cultural Elitist
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: I got nowhere else to go.
Posts: 16,523
Brother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by silverwhisper View Post
BB, did your analysis similarly pro-rate for the opposing defenses played by the offenses?
It didn't...my plane was getting ready to board.
__________________
Brother Brian

Quote:
Originally Posted by Origen View Post
Sometimes, you outgrow promises you make to yourself. That doesn't mean you just couldn't hack it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Origen
Welcome the Forge of Reality (tm), motherfucker.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Archaelos
I'm constantly surprised by the number of people who's memories of political events stretch back exactly to the day after the last time their side did something they don't like.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 02-03-2017, 03:04 PM
Brother Brian's Avatar
Brother Brian Brother Brian is offline
Ivory Tower dwelling Cultural Elitist
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: I got nowhere else to go.
Posts: 16,523
Brother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond reputeBrother Brian has a reputation beyond repute
Default

So I just added that piece. A couple of corrections:

1. Atlanta's offense exceeds the average points allowed by their opponents at 146%.
2. Their defense allows 105% of the opponents average points scored.
3. The Patriots D holds opponents to 76% of average points scored.
4. The Patriots Offense scores 125% of their opponents average points allowed, but if you restrict it only to games started by Tom Brady, that goes to 135%.

So using these percentages, if things play to form:

Atlanta will score between 22.97 (Pats average of 15.72 PPG allowed x 146%) and 26.01 (Average of 34.44 points scored x 76%)

The Patriots (using Brady specific numbers) will score between 32.21 (Average 30.71 PPG x 105%) and 33.44 (Avg allowed 24.83 x 135%).

Now this is all nice and fun, but of course means little come Sunday. But if I had to put money on the game, the Patriots look favorable at -3.
__________________
Brother Brian

Quote:
Originally Posted by Origen View Post
Sometimes, you outgrow promises you make to yourself. That doesn't mean you just couldn't hack it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Origen
Welcome the Forge of Reality (tm), motherfucker.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Archaelos
I'm constantly surprised by the number of people who's memories of political events stretch back exactly to the day after the last time their side did something they don't like.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 02-03-2017, 10:45 PM
Ischade's Avatar
Ischade Ischade is offline
The unsullied one.
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 8,069
Ischade has a reputation beyond reputeIschade has a reputation beyond reputeIschade has a reputation beyond reputeIschade has a reputation beyond reputeIschade has a reputation beyond reputeIschade has a reputation beyond reputeIschade has a reputation beyond reputeIschade has a reputation beyond reputeIschade has a reputation beyond reputeIschade has a reputation beyond reputeIschade has a reputation beyond repute
Default

I have no strong opinions this time around. I can not, in good conscience, cheer for Brady or Belicheck, have no particular desire to see Atlanta win beyond cheering for the underdog, and would enjoy watching Brady snatch the Lombardi trophy out of Goodell's hands. I'm looking forward to getting high with friends and watching the commercials.
__________________
Quote:
I get up every morning determined to both change the world and have one hell of a good time. Sometimes this makes planning my day difficult.
- E. B. White
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 02-04-2017, 07:13 AM
silverwhisper silverwhisper is offline
just this guy, you know?
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: currently, elsewhere
Posts: 23,766
silverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond repute
Default

i'll admit that i bear no great dislike for the patriots but no great love for them, either.

having said that: i have the utmost respect for how effective a team they are, beginning with when parcells was there, and of course now with belichick. they are coached exceedingly well, their schemes are excellent, and the way their salary cap is managed is a model to less temperate and disciplined franchises (coughjerryjonescough). and whatever i may think of tom brady's politics, you have to mention him in the same company as montana. he truly is that great.

that's why i voted as i did. that's what my head tells me.

i would prefer for ATL to win simply because they've never won it all before. i know, i know, when we talk football i get all grognard and shit, and the falcons play in a dome, whereas NE plays in the elements, in true grognard fashion.

but the falcons are unquestionably the underdog and on some level, i always do root for the underdog, at least a little.

they're terrific at home--like all dome teams. but any team that's this formidable at home always inspires a certain amount of mistrust in me. i kinda sorta mistrust SEA for the same reason: that new stadium.

BB already did nice work with analyzing the numbers. and no question, matty ice is having a crazy good season.

but new england's been a playoff juggernaut for a long time now. every time they go on a long playoff run, they're a threat to go the distance. seemingly the only thing that stops the pats once they get to the big dance is eli--and as we all know, eli's watching from home this year.
__________________
"i think this line's mostly filler"--willow rosenberg, once more with feeling, season 6, buffy the vampire slayer
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 02-05-2017, 06:51 PM
silverwhisper silverwhisper is offline
just this guy, you know?
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: currently, elsewhere
Posts: 23,766
silverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond repute
Default

god damn it. trump is making me miss bush the elder!
__________________
"i think this line's mostly filler"--willow rosenberg, once more with feeling, season 6, buffy the vampire slayer
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 02-05-2017, 10:34 PM
silverwhisper silverwhisper is offline
just this guy, you know?
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: currently, elsewhere
Posts: 23,766
silverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond reputesilverwhisper has a reputation beyond repute
Default

congratulations, BB. that was a hell of a 2nd half! one of the best super bowls ever!
__________________
"i think this line's mostly filler"--willow rosenberg, once more with feeling, season 6, buffy the vampire slayer
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
football, nfl, polls, super bowl, super bowl 51

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:54 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.2
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright on all original post text belongs to the poster.