Round 2 - Playoff Picks

[Wook]

The games:

Giants @ Dallas
Seattle @ Green Bay
Chargers @ Colts
Jaguars @ Pats

My picks:
Dallas, Green Bay, Colts, Jaguars.

[silverwhisper]

i think i agree. i don't like it, but i just don't think the banged-up giants secondary will neutralize TO and they've never been able to contain witten.

[Chris]

As much as I think the Jags have the best shot at beating the Pats, I have a feeling we are going to be witnessing history this year. I'm going to go with the Pats (not that I'm going out on a limb and bucking the odds or anything).

I'm also going to be rooting for the G-men, even though I agree with ed that they likely won't quite be able to pull it off.

And I have a gut feeling that the Chargers might manage an upset in Indy. The went into Tennessee and put a serious wallop on the Titans yesterday. They'll be taking that momentum into next week against a "too rested" Colts. AND they beat the Colts once this year already.

So in the end I'm going to go: Dallas, Green Bay, San Diego & NE

[Parzival]

Cowboys, Seahawks, Chargers, Jaguars.

Most of the games could easily go either way.
The Giants are surging, and the Cowboys have had a bit of a slump at the end of the season.
Green Bay's Defense doesn't cover the spread offense Seattle runs very well, (while Seattle's pass defense is great, if somewhat inconsistant, and Farve has never been especially cautious with the ball) but inclimate weather could make both teams focus on the run.
The Colts have injury problems and little depth on either side of the ball, while Rivers has been inconsistant in making his reads.
The Pats have had trouble stopping the run defensively. They've relied on getting ahead and making the other team throw. Jacksonville's secondary is good enough that it should limit the Pats passing game to the short game (especially if there's inclimate weather) and the ball control of the Jags should limit scoring opportunities for the Pats. That said, the Jags eased up against Pittsburgh, when they could have slammed the door. I'm not sure if the mental toughness is there.

[Paulypalooza]

Cowboys, Green Bay, Chargers, New England

The Green Bay and New England games could be decided by the weather. Neither Green Bay or New England are built for smash-mouth running if they can't pass.

[silverwhisper]

hey pauly, got a friendly wager for you about the giants/'boys game. interested?

the stake: loser changes title for one week touting the other's team, must receive winner's approval.

how's that sound?

[Kalzazz]

Dallas, Green Bay, Indiannapolis, New England

[Brother Brian]

Giants @ Dallas

Dallas is to good for the G-Men. This would be the upset of the post season, IMO.

Seattle @ Green Bay

I'm going with Seattle. I'm not sure why, it's a gut pick.

Chargers @ Colts

I saw nothing from the Chargers yesterday to make me pick them. Colts win.

Jaguars @ Pats

Sorry folks, there's no way Jacksonville is the team to unseat the Patriots. Pats win by double digits.

[Brother Brian]

BTW: Weather for Saturday night in Foxboro

Temps in the low 30s, partly cloudy, wind <3 MPH, less than 10% chance of precipitation.

[Paulypalooza]

hey pauly, got a friendly wager for you about the giants/'boys game. interested?

the stake: loser changes title for one week touting the other's team, must receive winner's approval.

how's that sound?

Your on. Naturally I'll also change my avatar

[silverwhisper]

nah, i don't think that's necessary, man. :>

[Paulypalooza]

nah, i don't think that's necessary, man. :>

If I lose I'm not going to have a Cowboys helmet up there with a title next to it saying something positive about the G-men. I'll find a helmet or other logo from big blue to display

[silverwhisper]

well, that's not a fair stake though since i don't use an av at all.

[Paulypalooza]

well, that's not a fair stake though since i don't use an av at all.

Then perhaps I'll go without an av but I won't have conflicting teams up there.

[Detritus]

Cowboys, Packers, Patriots, Chargers.

[Starhawk]

well, that's not a fair stake though since i don't use an av at all.

'Twould be a fine bet, then, if your VERY FIRST avatar was for a foreign team.

Bet your avatar virginity, ed! :th_SmlyROFL:

[silverwhisper]

actually, i used to use an av in the past, an AGI that jason starfire created for me. :>

[Detritus]

The Green Bay and New England games could be decided by the weather. Neither Green Bay or New England are built for smash-mouth running if they can't pass.
I missed this statement earlier this week, but in the GB-Seattle game in particular, Seattle's offense was exposed as being even more one-dimensional than Green Bay's. With Ryan Grant's emergence over the second half of the season for the Pack, Maroney's appearance the last few games for the Pats (and remember that Sammy Morris was pretty effective during the first part of the season until he got hurt), and Shaun Alexander's complete disappearance this season, Seattle had the weakest running game by far of the 8 teams still alive going into this weekend's games. I mean, the Seahawks basically scrapped the run in midseason while both of their opening day WRs (Branch and Hackett) were banged up.

[Brother Brian]

While I give Girard all the credit in the world for stepping up and playing as well as he did, where was the vaunted Jags D? Where was the overpowering and dominating running game.

Girard carried the team as far as it would go. Brady was damned near perfect, and it exposed a problem every team has to face: If you take away Moss, they'll beat you short, if you try to take away the short, they'll beat you by running and throwing long.

This may be the greatest offense that has EVER played in the NFL.

[silverwhisper]

BB: i dunno, from the parts of the game i saw, it looked like the pats defenders had terrific problems tackling either RB, esp once they were in stride.

as to stopping the pats o: duplicate the philly plan devised by jim johnson: hold off your blitzes until the last second instead of the LBs or backs creeping up. get some solid hits on brady, get his jersey dirty.

[Parzival]

With the Pats D stacking 8 and 9 defenders against the rush, the Jags still averaged 3.64 yards a carry. That's not at all shabby, and if the Jags had decided to wear down the Pats LBs, the average would have kept creeping up.
(Of course, I'm talking to someone who's been bitching about the Pat's starting RB "only" having a 1500-yd season.)

Jacksonville missed too many tackles (I lost count of all the 2-4 yard passes that resulted in missed tackles and first downs), their receivers dropped a couple of critical passes, they weren't able to get to Brady, and Garrard's mistake with four minutes left sealed the deal.
Kudos to the Pats, they played as close to a perfect game as any of us are ever likely to see, against a very tough opponent. <shrug> The fan-boy bluster only detracts from that.

Det, you're right. I meant to type Seattle (since Grant's numbers over the second half of the season have been nothing short of astounding).

[Detritus]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CepkO_buVEk

:sawink2:

[silverwhisper]

pauly, my sympathies. i was impressed at how well the giants d responded in the second half of that game, holding both TO and crayton to no catches in the final 2 periods.

is anybody else surprised that indy lost, given how close that game was all the way?

[carmachu]

I'm suprised the game was close at all with Indy. You would think the returning champs would have played better.

[Brother Brian]

Philly caught the Pats in their lull, the line has stiffened up quite a bit since the bad two game run.

Don't get me wrong, the Pat's D isn't world beaters, but against the much vaunted two headed monster:

22 rushes for 80 yards.

Meanwhile Maroney alone had 22 rushes for 122 yards.

And the much vaunted Jags D didn't force one punt, of turnover. In fact, their only stop was a missed field goal.

Against a hobbled Charger's team, it looks like a straight shot to the Superbowl, where they likely face Green Bay.

[Brother Brian]

With the Pats D stacking 8 and 9 defenders against the rush, the Jags still averaged 3.64 yards a carry. That's not at all shabby, and if the Jags had decided to wear down the Pats LBs, the average would have kept creeping up.
(Of course, I'm talking to someone who's been bitching about the Pat's starting RB "only" having a 1500-yd season.)

Jacksonville missed too many tackles (I lost count of all the 2-4 yard passes that resulted in missed tackles and first downs), their receivers dropped a couple of critical passes, they weren't able to get to Brady, and Garrard's mistake with four minutes left sealed the deal.
Kudos to the Pats, they played as close to a perfect game as any of us are ever likely to see, against a very tough opponent. <shrug> The fan-boy bluster only detracts from that.

Det, you're right. I meant to type Seattle (since Grant's numbers over the second half of the season have been nothing short of astounding).

I got very tired of the "How the mediocre Jags were built perfectly to beat the pats" meme that had been floating around. I knew then that it was pie in the sky bullshit. I wanted to rub some noses in it.

[Starhawk]

I'm suprised the game was close at all with Indy. You would think the returning champs would have played better.


is anybody else surprised that indy lost, given how close that game was all the way?



...yeah.

:cussing::bawling:

I'm drinking, here.

My epic showdown of good versus evil in the AFC Championship has been denied. Now we've got bunch of classless clowns, and the Mordor Patriots.

Maybe I'll root for the Pack the rest of the way.

[silverwhisper]

BB, i wouldn't call the jags a mediocre team. or did you mean something else?

[Brother Brian]

You're right, I should have said they were a mediocre playoff team. I thought they were at best 3rd tier in the NFL, behind this year's powerhouses like NE, Indy, Dallas and GB, and also behind those who were under performing for much of the season, like SD and Seattle.

I didn't think they were any better than the "also rans" like Cleveland.

Of the playoff teams in general, I liked the Jags better than:

The Bucs and the Skins. I had them on par with NY, and Tennesee and Pitt. I had them as inferior to Dallas, GB, Seattle, San Diego, Indy, and New England.

Don't get me wrong. The Patriots were inferior a few years back when they played the Rams, and were inferior to Indy as well. Mediocre playoff teams can win when the better teams leave the door open. But this idea that they should be favored? It was getting annoying.

[carmachu]

I dont know starhawk...Giants are starting to look better and better as time goes on....

We'll see.

[Wook]

I got very tired of the "How the mediocre Jags were built perfectly to beat the pats" meme that had been floating around. I knew then that it was pie in the sky bullshit. I wanted to rub some noses in it.

No regular season passing leader has won the Super Bowl. Ever. As far as I know the only one to ever even make it there was Dan Marino.

I cheer every week for this trend to hold true.

[Kalzazz]

Well, this was truly dissapointing

Well, go Green Bay now

And now San Diego's wounded need to make miraculous recoveries

[Detritus]

No regular season passing leader has won the Super Bowl. Ever. As far as I know the only one to ever even make it there was Dan Marino.

I cheer every week for this trend to hold true.
Kurt Warner and Rich Gannon made it to the Super Bowl in consecutive years (following the '01 and '02 regular seasons) after leading the NFL in passing yardage:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_yds_year_by_year.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/

Otto Graham (Browns, 1950), and Johnny Unitas (Colts, 1959) were NFL passing yardage leaders the years their teams won NFL titles, also.

Warner was also #2 in passing yardage when the Rams won it all after the 1999 regular season, and he was benched after the first half of the Rams' final game that season (141 passing yards), whereas Steve Beuerlein went off for at least 288 passing yards (plus whatever yardage the Panthers lost in sacks, see here (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/car/1999_games.htm)) in the Panthers' final game of the season because they were fighting for their playoff lives, and the tie-breaker that was in play that year happened to be total points. Beuerlein edged Warner 4436 to 4353 in passing yardage that season; give Warner the PT in the second half of the Rams' final game, and there's a pretty good chance he takes the passing yardage title in '99.

[Kalzazz]

You people scare me

[Brother Brian]

No regular season passing leader has won the Super Bowl. Ever. As far as I know the only one to ever even make it there was Dan Marino.

I cheer every week for this trend to hold true.

That's because you're a bitter, bitter man. :)

[Chris]

And apparently wrong, too.

As for the picks, I went 3 for 4. Not too shabby.

I should have had more faith in the Giants.

Now I can't wait until next week. Eli has to come play on the tundra.

[silverwhisper]

chris: that should be a good game. who knew that in the conference championship game it would be eli, not peyton, who was playing, huh?

me, i'm looking forward to seeing how eli, who grew up in louisiana after all, adjusts to the tundra. i think that the giants might do OK defending the run, since they know all about grant already, having dealt him to the path in the first place.

your receiving corps is pretty young. think they'll be up to the weather + pressure? my bet is yes.

if the giants lose, there is no team to which i would rather that they lose.

[Parzival]

Mediocre?
Do you even *get* how difficult it is to go into Pittsburg twice in the late-season/post-season, and win both times?
Or that, depending on the methodology, Jacksonville had either the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th best offense in the NFL?
Or that Jacksonville was 11-5 in a division that sent three teams to the postseason? (And took 3 of those losses when the starting QB was sitting on the bench.)

Jacksonville was a top-tier team by just about any measure you can propose.

[Chris]

ed:

- Yes, it is both ironic and entertaining.

- Grant was so amazing in the game on Saturday, even in spite of his two early fumbles. 201 yards, 3 TDs. Just, wow.

- Agreed. The whole team is young (save for the old man at the wheel). But they performed phenomenally on Saturday. I expect no less this coming weekend against your boys. I have to say I'm starting to agree with the opinions of some that the Pack is playing like a team of destiny this season.

- That is high praise, coming from you. ;) Seriously though, I'm not going to be so dumb as to writing off the G-Men. I expect them to fight and I only hope we managed to play as inspired as we did against the Seahawks. I'm not going to go around calling it a Pats-Pack Super Bowl yet. That would be foolish.

[silverwhisper]

chris: o, i expect it to be a very good game indeed--assuming good eli shows up. the past 3 games in which he's played so well were all in good weather, and we all know that doesn't describe lambeau in january. :>

much as i'd like the giants to go all the way, i would have no qualms in shedding giants blue for pack green.

[Laruuk]

The Pac/Hawk game was awesome. The Giant/Cowboy game had me yelling and screaming at the TV.

I didn't make any predictions, but I was pulling for GB and NY. (My wife is from Wisconsin and I HATE "America's Team" - who the hell voted them America's Team anyway?)

The GB/NY Game is going to be awesome and can hardly wait til it kickoff. In the name of household tranquility I'm pulling for the Packers, but feel that both teams deserve to go to the Superbowl, especially after the games they played over last two days.

Man, The Pats and the Chargers.

That's going to be a helluva game too. No prediction, but I'm pulling for the Chargers.

I'd love to see a Packer/Charger Superbowl.

[BattleNymph]

Listening to the men on the train yesterday whining about the Patriots beating the Jags.

Heh...

I think it's going to be Patriots / Green bay in the super bowl.

[Detritus]

I'm guessing that Vincent Jackson, Antonio Cromartie, and possibly Billy Volek are all going to have to have the games of their lives for the Chargers to even have a shot at picking off the Pats. It wouldn't hurt for LT to dust off the Superman cape for this one, either.

[Brother Brian]

If Volek plays, and Tomlinson doesn't...I can't see how San Diego doesn't get absolutely gobsmacked in the game.

[silverwhisper]

i don't see rivers doing a good job of avoiding the pats pass rush. i think cromartie is the bolts' best bet, jumping some of those long routes we know brady's gonna try to force to moss.

[Brother Brian]

From what I heard on the radio this morning, Rivers will do a great job avoiding the rush.

Volek's going to have fits though.