UFC 100 Predictions

[Brother Brian]

So we are just a few days away from a stacked UFC 100 Card, and I though it would be interesting to see who the MMA fans like in each fight.

Here's the Card with odds supplies by MMA Weekly/ Betus.com:

(If you're not familiar with fight odds, they are based around $100. A negative number indicates how much you would have to bet to win $100, and a positive number is how much you win if you bet $100.

Another way of thinking about it is that a negative number is the favorite and the postive is the undertog. The numbers never match because the difference is how the house makes their profit.)

So here's the card. My thoughts later.

Heavyweight Championship Unification Match

Brock Lesnar (-240) vs. Frank Mir (+190)

Welterweight Championship Match

Georges St. Pierre (-300) vs. Thiago Alves (+220)

Dan Henderson (-240) vs. Michael Bisping (+190)

Jon Fitch (-500) vs. Paulo Thiago (+350)

Prelims

Yoshohiro Akiyma (-300) vs. Aaron Belcher (+220)

Marc Colman (+250)vs. Stefan Bonner (-350)

Mac Danzig (+160) vs. Jim Miller (-200)

Jon Jones (-450) vs. Jake O'Brien (+325)

Dong-Hyun Kim vs. TJ Grant

CB Dollaway vs. Tom Lawlor

Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty

[carmachu]

Agreed on Danzig. He just doesnt seem to have any heart last couple fights. And yes I hope Dollaway loses bad.


I'm kinda hoping Mir takes it, but Lesner assuming he plays to his agressive strengths should take it.

[Brother Brian]

Heavyweight Championship Unification Match

Brock Lesnar (-240) vs. Frank Mir (+190)

I thing a few things play against Frank Mir here. First is that Brock, if he's smart, has been training submission defence non-stop in preperation for facing a top level jits guy.

Second is that Brock is a smarter fighter than he was when they first met.

Finally I think Mir's stand up success against Noguira is going to make him believe he's better at standup than he is. Brock's "canned hams" only have to clock him once to hurt him.

I wouldn't lay any money on it, because if it does go to the ground, Mir's going to have a lot more to offer than Heath Herring did, and could catch Brock again. But I think that Brock's got Mir's number in this one.

Prediction: Brock Lesnar, TKO, Round 2


Welterweight Championship Match

Georges St. Pierre (-300) vs. Thiago Alves (+220)

Alves is getting way too much press for his win against Hughes. Let's not forget that

1. Hughes took the fight on somewhat short notice.

2. Hughes, unlike GSP is pretty much a one dimensional fighter. If he can't out power you...he has no real game plan.

Alves will stand with GSP at first, and use his leg kicks, until GSP decides to take him down and either pound him out or sub him.

Prediction: GSP by TKO, Round 1


Dan Henderson (-240) vs. Michael Bisping (+190)

This is a tough call. Henderson has yet to look very good in his return to the Octagon, losing to Jackson and Anderson Silva, and winning a contestable decision over Rich Franklin. Then again, he was fighting Rampage, Anderson F'n Silva and Rich Franklin.

Bisping is an up and coming fighter, who's had a couple of missteps along the way. He hits hard, and has good endurance. If he can drag the fight out, he could out score Henderson on his feet.

Prediction: Michael Bisping by Decision

Yoshohiro Akiyama (-300) vs. Aaron Belcher (+220)

I haven't gotten to see much of Akiyama, but what little I have tells me that his ground game is vastly superior to Belcher's. He also throws hard punches, so I can't give Belcher a huge advantage on his feet. So unless Belcher gets a lucky punch in, I'd expect Akiyama to submit him early.

Prediction: Yoshohiro Akiyama by submission (Choke) R1

Jon Fitch (-500) vs. Paulo Thiago (+350)

Thiago got in a lucky punch after Josh Koscheck was dominating him. Lightning won't strike twice, Fitch will dominate him for 3 rounds.

Prediction: Jon Fitch by decision


Prelims



Marc Colman (+250)vs. Stefan Bonner (-350)

Here we have a great in Colman, who is well past his prime. On the other hand, if we look beyond his ringrust inhibited performance against Jon Jones, who has Bonner lost to? Machida, Rashad, Forrest.

Bonner lacks stopping power, and Coleman is cagy enough to avoid the sub, but this is going to be a pretty one sided affair.

Prediction: Stefan Bonner by decision.

Mac Danzig (+160) vs. Jim Miller (-200)

I haven't been impressed by either fighter, with Miller coming off his decision loss to Grey Maynard, and Danzig's difficulties with Guida and Neer.

I think Danzig knows he needs a win here to stay in the UFC, and that will drive him to success.

Prediction Mac Danzig by decision

Jon Jones (-450) vs. Jake O'Brien (+325)

Coming off his win over Bonner, I expect Jones to move quickly and lay a beating on O'Brien.

Prediction: Jon Jones by KO R1


Dong-Hyun Kim vs. TJ Grant

I know nothing about either guy.

CB Dollaway vs. Tom Lawlor

I hate Dollaway. So:

Prediction / Hope: Tom Lawlor by KO, 0:03 R1

Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty

I never bet against a man with a girl's first name. He's been fighting all his life.

Prediction: Shannon G. Submission R2