Fantasy Football Playoff Implications

[Brother Brian]

So with 2 games left in the regular season 9 times are still numerically playoff eligible. This week's games have major implications.

Here's where they stand:

Teams that can seal the deal this week.


1. Wily Corn Trolls - Have clinched a playoff birth. Can clinch top seed with a win and Zohan's Posse loss.

2. Zohan's Posee - Will clinch a playoff birth with one more victory Keep top seed hopes alive with a win, or with a WCT loss.

3. Trifecta Wookies - Currently leading the pack of chasers. Clinch a playoff birth with a win and a loss by both the 2nd helping skillits and Fighting Friars.

Teams that can not be knocked out this week.

4. Fighting Friars, Neanderthals, 2nd Helping Skillets, Tribbles

With the Tribbles and the Neanderthals playing each other, we have one guaranteed 7-6 team. Wins by the Friars over the WCT, and the Skillets over Snakebitten, and a possible loss by the Wookies against Snakebitten could leave 4 teams battling for two spots on the last week of the season.

The tie breaker of season points grows more important with this log jam. Here's how it stands.

Wookies lead with 1090.4
Friars are second with 1088.8, 1.6 behind the Wookies.
The Neanderthals are next with 1055.7, 33.1 behind the friars, 34.7 behind the Wookies.
The Skillets have 1027, 63.4 behind the Wookies, 61.8 behind the Friars,a nd 28.7 behind the Neanderthals.
The Tribbles close out the pack with 976.1. This puts them 114.3 behind the Wookies, 112.7 behind the Friars, 79.6 behind the Neanderthals, and 50.9 behind the Skillets.

So what does all this mean?

With the WCT playing the Friars, and the Wookies playing Zohan's posse, the current top two will need to pull off upsets to keep their position. That said, The Corn Trolls have underperformed the last couple weeks with 2 or their three lowest scoring weeks, while the Friars seem to have broken out of their midseason slump and have put up 100+ for two consecutive weeks.

Earlier in the season, though the Trolls stomped the Friars 109.7-47.6 in the Friar's worst game of the year.

In the Wookies vs. Zohan's Possee, the Wookies may have a bigger challenge. Zohan's put up 114 points for two straigt weeks. (That said, Randy Moss will have a much tougher time putting big points up on the Steelers than he did on either the Jets or Dolphins.)

That said, the Wookies are riding a 4 game win streak, but have had up and down results, including getting lucky in a 62.5-59.5 game against the Fallen Angels. Earlier this year, the Wookies fell to the Posse 119-117.3. Another close game can be expected.

Finally, we have 2 teams that can only be knocked out this week.

Demolition and Snakebitten both sit at 5 and 7. Since it is a guarantee that at least 4 teams will end up with no less than 7 wins, they have to hope that 500 is good enough to get in the payoffs.

Both teams must win. If Snake Bitten falls to the Skillets or the Fallen Angels play spoiler to the Demolition they are out.

Demolition is in an interesting position. Clearly the hard luck story of the year, they are 3rd in season points, despite a losing recored, the team has been plagued by inconsistancy. If however the wins and loses fall right, they could be playing for a playoff spot next week.

Snakebitten is a longshot however. Their points total is such that they could reasonably only expect to beat the Tribbles in the tie breaker.

It's a race to the finish here. Expect more analysis to come, unless my boss finds real work for me to do.

;)

[Brother Brian]

Of the Log Jam, here are my predictions.

Of the 6 and 6 teams, the Skillets have the easiest road in, vs. SnakeBitten and the Fallen Angels.

I predict they will finish 8 and 6.

I think the Neanderthals will beat the Tribbles this week. That puts them against the inconistant Demoliton in week 14. I like the matchups of the Demolition players, and think they win it.

Leaving both the Neanderthals and Demoliton 7 and 7.

The Tribbles have two tough games, and I think they lose them both, to the Neanderthals and the Possee, finishing at 6-8

Leaving the Friars at 6-6 and the Wookies at 7-6.

I like the Friars against the WCT because of the streaks, and because the WCT have three big players going on short rest Thursday. Then again I'm biased.

I also think that the Wookies will have a hard time with the Posse.

It wouldn't suprise me at all if the final game between the Wookies and the Friars had a playoff birth at stake.

[Brother Brian]

er...berth...not birth.

*Scuffs feet on the ground*

I was working off spreadsheets I'd made to go through the permutations and let my fingers do the spelling.

Sorry.

[Brother Brian]

Still, when read literally, it sounds weirdly cool...

Since 4-8 play in a "consolation" playoff, I guess that would make it a playoff "afterbirth"?

[carmachu]

I think this is the closest year I have seen in a while. Usually its alot more spreadout and decided by now.

[Wook]

This week against the posse is huge. If I win I'm essentially in. It'd still be possible for me to be eliminated but it gets very close to a sure thing at that point. especially if the friars have a low scoring week. I'm going to be nail biting all weekend.

[Detritus]

I like the Friars against the WCT because of the streaks, and because the WCT have three big players going on short rest Thursday. Then again I'm biased.
That's just silly. The teams my guys are going up against today are working off of equally short rest.

Also, my club did have a bad week last week in particular, but that was partly because Willie Parker's candy ass couldn't make it through the whole game vs. Cincy and partly because Larry Fitzgerald decided to pose in the end zone after he caught the ball instead of pulling it in to his body last week, which allowed a Giants' DB to knock it out of his hands.

I'll take my chances on Warner-to-Fitzgerald against a Philly team in a bit of disarray, Chris Johnson vs. the Lions, and Calvin Johnson against anyone. I think they roll out of bed with at least 40 points, and their combined ceiling is somewhere around twice that. My guess is you'll be chasing around 60 points after today, but this is why they play the games....

[Brother Brian]

I've found that short rest results in lower stats.

Clearly I was wrong, and will need a huge score to beat you. My logic was hardly silly.

[Detritus]

I've found that when players go up against weak defenses, that results in higher stats.

Seriously, did you even look at the teams my guys (and ****'s) were going up against? If not, then, yes, your logic was silly to the extent that it didn't take matchups into account. It doesn't take an FF genius to realize that, short rest or not, Chris Johnson and LenDale White might be in for big days against the Lions, or that the Dallas passing game would go off against the atrocious Seahawks secondary, or that if Joe Flacco can pass for a couple of scores against Philly then Kurt Warner might be good for at least as many scores.